AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, October 29

Manitoba Moose at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Manitoba Moose
4:3
Final
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

MBTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
34%66%
xG
2.03.0
High danger
34
Chances
610
Shots
1732

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

17Shots on goal32
6Scoring chances10
3High-danger chances4
1.98Expected goals2.99

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–103–31–00.6–0.7
2nd8–91–51–31.0–1.2
3rd3–132–21–10.4–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TUC−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TUC212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Domenic DiVincentiis
Shots faced
32
Saves
29
Allowed
3
xGA
2.99
GSAx
-0.01
Jaxson Stauber
Shots faced
17
Saves
13
Allowed
4
xGA
1.98
GSAx
-2.02

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 9:21Penalty
  • 1st 11:35Austin Poganski (0–1)low · 55 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 1st 19:53Penalty
  • 2nd 5:54Jaret Anderson-Dolan (1–1)grade A · rebound · 3 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 2nd 8:16Penalty
  • 2nd 8:57Cameron Hebig (1–2)5v4 · low · 46 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 2nd 10:17Penalty
  • 2nd 10:58Phillip Di Giuseppe (2–2)4v5 · low · 25 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 3rd 0:09Penalty
  • 3rd 1:38Kale Clague (3–2)5v4 · low · 55 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 3rd 5:02Mason Shaw (4–2)high · 6 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 3rd 16:18Penalty
  • 3rd 17:24Penalty
  • 3rd 17:29Cameron Hebig (4–3)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 6 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis