Utica Comets at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Utica Comets

0:4

Final

Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

UTCSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

43%57%

xG: 3.63.6
High danger: 55
Chances: 1217
Shots: 3331

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SYR above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal31

12Scoring chances17

5High-danger chances5

3.58Expected goals3.64

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–7	2–2	0–1	0.4–0.9
2nd	12–10	4–8	1–3	1.2–1.3
3rd	16–14	6–7	4–1	2.0–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
UTC	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ryan Fanti

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 33
Allowed: 0
xGA: 3.58
GSAx: +3.58

Nico Daws

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 27
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.64
GSAx: -0.36

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 12:30Penalty
1st 14:00Penalty
1st 18:50Scott Sabourin (0–1)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Nico Daws
2nd 1:03Nick Abruzzese (0–2)high · 12 ft · beat Nico Daws
2nd 2:20Penalty
2nd 2:20Penalty
2nd 2:20Penalty
2nd 2:45Penalty
2nd 7:07Penalty
2nd 16:21Brendan Furry (0–3)medium · 13 ft · beat Nico Daws
2nd 17:06Penalty
2nd 17:42Penalty
2nd 18:31Penalty
2nd 19:09Conor Geekie (0–4)5v4 · high · 23 ft · beat Nico Daws
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 0:51Penalty
3rd 2:17Penalty
3rd 8:23Penalty
3rd 11:46Penalty
3rd 11:46Penalty
3rd 15:25Penalty
3rd 16:44Penalty