Bridgeport Islanders at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

Mohegan Arena at Casey Plaza · Wilkes-Barre, PA

Bridgeport Islanders

2:3

Final

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

The sheet

BRIWBSSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

27%73%

xG: 2.23.1
High danger: 25
Chances: 710
Shots: 2434

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

WBS above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% WBS.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal34

7Scoring chances10

2High-danger chances5

2.15Expected goals3.14

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–17	0–4	0–2	0.3–1.6
2nd	6–10	1–6	0–3	0.4–1.2
3rd	12–7	6–0	2–0	1.5–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Marcus Högberg

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 31
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.14
GSAx: +0.14

Filip Larsson

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 22
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.15
GSAx: +0.15

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 14:14Sam Poulin (0–1)high · backhand · 11 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
1st 16:45Alex Jefferies (1–1)low · 31 ft · beat Filip Larsson
2nd 0:32Penalty
2nd 9:28Penalty
2nd 14:08Penalty
3rd 0:14Penalty
3rd 2:51Penalty
3rd 3:58Penalty
3rd 7:53Penalty
3rd 8:34Penalty
3rd 13:52Sam Poulin (1–2)low · tip · 12 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
3rd 18:18Danton Heinen (1–3)empty net · low · slap · 49 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
3rd 19:48Hunter Drew (2–3)low · wrist · 56 ft · beat Filip Larsson