AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, November 1

Charlotte Checkers at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Charlotte Checkers
5:3
Final
Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

CLTSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
21%79%
xG
2.43.5
High danger
15
Chances
715
Shots
3235

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SPR above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 41% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal35
7Scoring chances15
1High-danger chances5
2.44Expected goals3.55

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–123–30–10.9–0.9
2nd13–113–31–01.1–0.8
3rd7–121–90–40.4–1.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SPR−3−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SPR31:41 of the 3rd18:199:03+0.023 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cooper Black
Shots faced
35
Saves
32
Allowed
3
xGA
3.55
GSAx
+0.55
Georgii Romanov
Shots faced
29
Saves
25
Allowed
4
xGA
2.28
GSAx
-1.72
Vadim Zherenko
Shots faced
3
Saves
2
Allowed
1
xGA
0.17
GSAx
-0.83

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:28Penalty
  • 1st 4:09Penalty
  • 1st 6:52Matt Luff (0–1)low · 20 ft · beat Cooper Black
  • 1st 8:46Penalty
  • 1st 9:33Penalty
  • 1st 11:26Sandis Vilmanis (1–1)4v5 · low · 19 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
  • 1st 18:24Penalty
  • 2nd 6:18Wilmer Skoog (2–1)high · 8 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
  • 2nd 6:52Trevor Carrick (3–1)low · 54 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
  • 2nd 7:12Penalty
  • 2nd 7:12Penalty
  • 2nd 7:12Penalty
  • 2nd 10:07Penalty
  • 2nd 10:07Penalty
  • 2nd 11:26Penalty
  • 2nd 17:03Penalty
  • 3rd 1:41Brett Chorske (4–1)medium · 14 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
  • 3rd 2:19Penalty
  • 3rd 2:53Matthew Peca (4–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Cooper Black
  • 3rd 4:43Penalty
  • 3rd 5:54Matthew Peca (4–3)5v4 · high · 21 ft · beat Cooper Black
  • 3rd 9:29Penalty
  • 3rd 12:05Sandis Vilmanis (5–3)low · 28 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 3rd 15:21Penalty