AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, November 1

Toronto Marlies at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Toronto Marlies
1:4
Final
Chicago Wolves

The sheet

TORCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
26%74%
xG
2.02.5
High danger
26
Chances
69
Shots
2324

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CHI above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal24
6Scoring chances9
2High-danger chances6
2.02Expected goals2.50

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–94–32–21.2–0.8
2nd5–121–50–30.4–1.4
3rd6–31–10–10.4–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TOR−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TOR32:28 of the 3rd17:3217:32+0.023 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dennis Hildeby
Shots faced
24
Saves
20
Allowed
4
xGA
2.49
GSAx
-1.51
Pyotr Kochetkov
Shots faced
23
Saves
22
Allowed
1
xGA
2.02
GSAx
+1.02

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:44Evan Vierling (0–1)high · 11 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 1st 13:07Penalty
  • 1st 15:06Henry Thrun (1–1)5v4 · low · 54 ft · beat Pyotr Kochetkov
  • 1st 17:29Penalty
  • 2nd 1:49Penalty
  • 2nd 5:28Penalty
  • 2nd 16:33Dominik Badinka (1–2)grade A · rebound · 5 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 2nd 17:54Penalty
  • 2nd 19:43Skyler Brind’Amour (1–3)5v4 · low · 37 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 3rd 2:28Nikita Pavlychev (1–4)low · 40 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 3rd 13:04Penalty
  • 3rd 15:49Penalty