Grand Rapids Griffins at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Grand Rapids Griffins

4:2

Final

Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

GRRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

70%30%

xG: 2.52.5
High danger: 82
Chances: 107
Shots: 2426

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

RFD above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 36% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal26

10Scoring chances7

8High-danger chances2

2.52Expected goals2.47

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–6	6–2	5–0	1.5–0.4
2nd	2–13	0–2	0–2	0.1–1.6
3rd	9–7	4–3	3–0	0.9–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	5:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sebastian Cossa

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 24
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.47
GSAx: +0.47

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 20
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.32
GSAx: -0.68

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:10Penalty
1st 8:44John Leonard (1–0)5v4 · medium · 27 ft · beat Drew Commesso
1st 10:15Penalty
1st 12:24Penalty
1st 13:00Dominik Shine (2–0)4v5 · grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Drew Commesso
1st 16:42Penalty
2nd 16:15Penalty
2nd 18:21Jackson Cates (2–1)low · 29 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 7:44Antti Tuomisto (3–1)low · 33 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 9:40Penalty
3rd 14:49Penalty
3rd 14:56Nick Lardis (3–2)5v4 · low · 60 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 18:24Dominik Shine (4–2)empty net · high · 5 ft