Ontario Reign at San Jose Barracuda

Tech CU Arena · San Jose, CA

Ontario Reign

2:4

Final

San Jose Barracuda

The sheet

ONTSJSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

43%57%

xG: 2.42.6
High danger: 35
Chances: 109
Shots: 2930

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SJ above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% SJ.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal30

10Scoring chances9

3High-danger chances5

2.44Expected goals2.58

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–7	1–3	0–2	0.3–0.9
2nd	11–9	3–2	0–0	0.8–0.5
3rd	13–14	6–4	3–3	1.3–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:02	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 26
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.57
GSAx: -1.43

Gabriel Carriere

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 27
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.44
GSAx: +0.44

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:46Penalty
1st 5:46Penalty
1st 7:54Penalty
1st 7:54Penalty
1st 8:07Jack Thompson (0–1)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
1st 14:43Penalty
1st 15:05Zack Ostapchuk (0–2)4v5 · medium · 16 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
2nd 2:59Penalty
2nd 10:23Martin Chromiak (1–2)medium · 8 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
2nd 14:29Penalty
2nd 19:59Penalty
2nd 19:59Penalty
3rd 6:01Penalty
3rd 7:34Quentin Musty (1–3)5v4 · high · 19 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 10:46Penalty
3rd 10:46Penalty
3rd 15:23Penalty
3rd 16:07Taylor Ward (2–3)5v4 · high · 12 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
3rd 17:10Pavol Regenda (2–4)high · 11 ft · beat Pheonix Copley