Colorado Eagles at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Colorado Eagles

3:1

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

COLCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

69%31%

xG: 3.31.8
High danger: 12
Chances: 156
Shots: 3619

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 45% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal19

15Scoring chances6

1High-danger chances2

3.27Expected goals1.75

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–7	3–4	0–2	0.9–0.9
2nd	14–5	6–1	0–0	1.3–0.4
3rd	12–7	6–1	1–0	1.1–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CV	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Victor Östman

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 33
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.27
GSAx: +0.27

Trent Miner

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 18
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.75
GSAx: +0.75

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:23Penalty
1st 13:29Penalty
1st 15:50Penalty
1st 16:02Danil Gushchin (1–0)5v4 · medium · 37 ft · beat Victor Östman
2nd 9:37Penalty
2nd 10:36Penalty
3rd 11:49Tristen Nielsen (2–0)high · 10 ft · beat Victor Östman
3rd 13:04Alex Barré-Boulet (3–0)medium · 28 ft · beat Victor Östman
3rd 15:45Mitchell Stephens (3–1)low · 17 ft · beat Trent Miner