AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, November 2

Bakersfield Condors at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Bakersfield Condors
1:6
Final
Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

BAKCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
38%62%
xG
1.72.1
High danger
12
Chances
510
Shots
2221

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.52P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CGY above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 42% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal21
5Scoring chances10
1High-danger chances2
1.73Expected goals2.11

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–63–20–00.7–0.5
2nd6–72–51–10.5–0.8
3rd8–80–30–10.6–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK36:40 of the 3rd13:2013:20+0.019 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Owen Say
Shots faced
22
Saves
21
Allowed
1
xGA
1.73
GSAx
+0.73
Connor Ingram
Shots faced
21
Saves
15
Allowed
6
xGA
2.11
GSAx
-3.89

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:53Penalty
  • 1st 0:53Penalty
  • 1st 0:53Penalty
  • 1st 2:21Viljami Marjala (1–0)5v4 · medium · wrist · 31 ft · beat Owen Say
  • 1st 8:18Penalty
  • 1st 9:55Penalty
  • 1st 12:37Turner Ottenbreit (1–1)low · slap · 26 ft · beat Connor Ingram
  • 1st 14:38Penalty
  • 1st 19:56Hunter Brzustewicz (1–2)low · wrist · 33 ft · beat Connor Ingram
  • 2nd 4:35Penalty
  • 2nd 14:17Aydar Suniev (1–3)medium · snap · 18 ft · beat Connor Ingram
  • 2nd 16:12Penalty
  • 2nd 17:48Penalty
  • 3rd 6:40Sam Morton (1–4)medium · wrist · 18 ft · beat Connor Ingram
  • 3rd 14:37Penalty
  • 3rd 17:27Dryden Hunt (1–5)empty net · medium · backhand · 29 ft · beat Connor Ingram
  • 3rd 19:25Matvei Gridin (1–6)high · backhand · 6 ft · beat Connor Ingram
  • 3rd 19:34Penalty
  • 3rd 19:34Penalty
  • 3rd 19:34Penalty
  • 3rd 19:34Penalty