AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, November 2

Charlotte Checkers at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Charlotte Checkers
2:5
Final
Providence Bruins

The sheet

CLTPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
10%90%
xG
1.73.3
High danger
04
Chances
613
Shots
2335

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
PRO above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal35
6Scoring chances13
0High-danger chances4
1.71Expected goals3.28

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–136–60–31.1–1.5
2nd8–80–50–00.3–0.8
3rd5–140–20–10.2–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CLT−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CLT212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Kirill Gerasimyuk
Shots faced
34
Saves
30
Allowed
4
xGA
3.24
GSAx
-0.76
Michael DiPietro
Shots faced
23
Saves
21
Allowed
2
xGA
1.71
GSAx
-0.29

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:59John Farinacci (0–1)low · 26 ft · beat Kirill Gerasimyuk
  • 1st 11:10Penalty
  • 1st 14:43Nolan Foote (1–1)medium · 15 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 1st 14:58Riese Gaber (2–1)medium · 11 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 1st 17:32Patrick Brown (2–2)high · 15 ft · beat Kirill Gerasimyuk
  • 1st 18:15Penalty
  • 1st 19:01Penalty
  • 2nd 2:25Penalty
  • 2nd 6:50Penalty
  • 2nd 6:50Penalty
  • 2nd 9:56Penalty
  • 2nd 9:56Penalty
  • 2nd 15:48Riley Tufte (2–3)medium · 8 ft · beat Kirill Gerasimyuk
  • 2nd 17:12Penalty
  • 3rd 10:05Fabian Lysell (2–4)medium · 11 ft · beat Kirill Gerasimyuk
  • 3rd 17:24Riley Tufte (2–5)empty net · low · 56 ft
  • 3rd 18:39Penalty
  • 3rd 18:39Penalty
  • 3rd 18:39Penalty