AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, November 2

Tucson Roadrunners at Iowa Wild

Casey’s Center · Des Moines, IA

Tucson Roadrunners
4:5
Final / OT
Iowa Wild

The sheet

TUCIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
75%25%
xG
3.72.2
High danger
42
Chances
117
Shots
2930

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
IA above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 46% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal30
11Scoring chances7
4High-danger chances2
3.67Expected goals2.19

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–111–21–10.6–0.7
2nd13–65–21–01.3–0.4
3rd9–115–32–11.7–0.9
OT0–20–00–00.0–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TUC−2−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TUC212:09 of the 3rd7:514:53+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
30
Saves
25
Allowed
5
xGA
2.19
GSAx
-2.81
Samuel Hlavaj
Shots faced
29
Saves
25
Allowed
4
xGA
3.67
GSAx
-0.33

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 7:49Penalty
  • 1st 12:02Penalty
  • 1st 14:09Penalty
  • 1st 14:09Penalty
  • 1st 17:27Julian Lutz (1–0)low · 46 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
  • 2nd 6:11Penalty
  • 2nd 12:35Penalty
  • 2nd 12:35Penalty
  • 2nd 16:03Caedan Bankier (1–1)medium · 16 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 16:39Penalty
  • 3rd 2:23Mark Liwiski (1–2)low · 37 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 3:15Penalty
  • 3rd 6:02Oskar Olausson (1–3)low · 57 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 8:44Daniil But (2–3)medium · 7 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
  • 3rd 10:04Hunter Haight (2–4)low · 39 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 14:34Lleyton Moore (3–4)low · 40 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
  • 3rd 19:24Ben McCartney (4–4)grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
  • OT 2:24Liam Öhgren (4–5)low · 31 ft · beat Matthew Villalta