Colorado Eagles at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

Colorado Eagles

3:1

Final

San Diego Gulls

The sheet

COLSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

80%20%

xG: 3.02.0
High danger: 40
Chances: 119
Shots: 2925

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SD above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 41% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal25

11Scoring chances9

4High-danger chances0

2.97Expected goals2.01

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–11	2–4	1–0	0.5–1.0
2nd	11–8	2–2	1–0	1.0–0.5
3rd	12–6	7–3	2–0	1.4–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ville Husso

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.97
GSAx: -0.03

Isak Posch

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 24
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.01
GSAx: +1.01

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:02Penalty
1st 7:28Penalty
1st 8:41Matthew Phillips (0–1)5v4 · medium · 26 ft · beat Isak Posch
2nd 7:09Penalty
2nd 14:32Bryan Yoon (1–1)low · 55 ft · beat Ville Husso
2nd 16:10Penalty
3rd 5:53Ronnie Attard (2–1)grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Ville Husso
3rd 9:57Penalty
3rd 16:49Penalty
3rd 18:10Penalty
3rd 18:37Keaton Middleton (3–1)empty net · low · 148 ft · beat Ville Husso