Providence Bruins at Cleveland Monsters

Rocket Arena · Cleveland, OH

Providence Bruins

2:1

Final

Cleveland Monsters

The sheet

PROCLESolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

47%53%

xG: 3.24.5
High danger: 87
Chances: 1217
Shots: 2544

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLE above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% CLE.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal44

12Scoring chances17

8High-danger chances7

3.20Expected goals4.52

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–17	3–6	2–4	0.7–1.8
2nd	9–13	6–5	5–2	1.7–1.5
3rd	10–14	3–6	1–1	0.8–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLE	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michael DiPietro

Shots faced: 44
Saves: 43
Allowed: 1
xGA: 4.52
GSAx: +3.52

Ivan Fedotov

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 23
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.20
GSAx: +1.20

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 14:58Penalty
1st 16:57Dans Locmelis (1–0)4v5 · high · 21 ft · beat Ivan Fedotov
1st 19:36John Farinacci (2–0)high · tip · 8 ft · beat Ivan Fedotov
2nd 5:27Penalty
2nd 10:44Penalty
2nd 10:44Penalty
2nd 14:26Penalty
2nd 15:32Roman Ahcan (2–1)4v5 · low · snap · 32 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
2nd 16:56Penalty
2nd 16:56Penalty
2nd 17:43Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty