Toronto Marlies at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Toronto Marlies

5:2

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

TORHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

82%18%

xG: 2.61.5
High danger: 61
Chances: 96
Shots: 2919

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 46% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal19

9Scoring chances6

6High-danger chances1

2.62Expected goals1.50

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–6	3–1	2–0	1.1–0.4
2nd	10–7	3–4	1–1	0.7–0.7
3rd	7–6	3–1	3–0	0.8–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	2	15:52 of the 3rd	4:08	4:08	+0.020 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Garin Bjorklund

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 24
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.62
GSAx: -2.38

Artur Akhtyamov

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 17
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.51
GSAx: -0.49

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:18Matt Strome (0–1)low · 37 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
1st 7:39Henry Thrun (1–1)low · 40 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
1st 18:10Penalty
2nd 5:06Sam Bitten (1–2)medium · 13 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
2nd 6:19Travis Boyd (2–2)medium · 21 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
2nd 7:10Penalty
2nd 14:17Penalty
2nd 17:26Reese Johnson (3–2)low · 37 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
3rd 8:49Penalty
3rd 9:48Penalty
3rd 13:09Penalty
3rd 13:09Penalty
3rd 15:52Matthew Barbolini (4–2)low · 34 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
3rd 18:23Travis Boyd (5–2)empty net · high · 11 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund