Manitoba Moose at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Manitoba Moose

1:4

Final

Texas Stars

The sheet

MBTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

31%69%

xG: 1.72.0
High danger: 12
Chances: 56
Shots: 2628

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TEX above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal28

5Scoring chances6

1High-danger chances2

1.73Expected goals1.98

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–9	0–2	0–0	0.3–0.6
2nd	9–15	2–3	0–1	0.6–1.1
3rd	11–4	3–1	1–1	0.9–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 24
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.98
GSAx: -2.02

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 25
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.73
GSAx: +0.73

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:07Mason Shaw (1–0)low · 59 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
1st 10:23Penalty
1st 19:35Matthew Seminoff (1–1)low · 42 ft · beat Thomas Milic
2nd 1:59Kyle Looft (1–2)low · 38 ft · beat Thomas Milic
2nd 6:07Penalty
2nd 11:23Kyle Looft (1–3)low · 37 ft · beat Thomas Milic
2nd 12:41Penalty
3rd 2:22Penalty
3rd 4:40Penalty
3rd 7:26Penalty
3rd 15:44Penalty
3rd 19:50Kole Lind (1–4)empty net · low · 172 ft · beat Thomas Milic