Coachella Valley Firebirds at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Coachella Valley Firebirds

4:2

Final

Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

CVTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

62%38%

xG: 2.62.5
High danger: 32
Chances: 88
Shots: 3027

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TUC above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal27

8Scoring chances8

3High-danger chances2

2.56Expected goals2.50

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	16–6	3–2	1–0	1.3–0.5
2nd	7–11	4–4	2–1	0.8–1.1
3rd	7–10	1–2	0–1	0.4–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jaxson Stauber

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 26
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.56
GSAx: -1.44

Nikke Kokko

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 25
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.50
GSAx: +0.50

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:50Jacob Melanson (1–0)low · 37 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
1st 5:16David Goyette (2–0)high · rebound · 11 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
1st 7:15Penalty
1st 10:05Penalty
2nd 1:16Jagger Firkus (3–0)medium · 17 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
2nd 6:19Penalty
2nd 10:20Cameron Hebig (3–1)low · 43 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
2nd 19:41Penalty
3rd 7:53Penalty
3rd 8:09Austin Poganski (3–2)5v4 · low · 49 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
3rd 17:52Penalty
3rd 18:26Logan Morrison (4–2)empty net · medium · 38 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber