Henderson Silver Knights at Bakersfield Condors

Dignity Health Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Henderson Silver Knights

2:4

Final

Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

HSKBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

67%33%

xG: 3.61.8
High danger: 55
Chances: 167
Shots: 2819

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BAK above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 45% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal19

16Scoring chances7

5High-danger chances5

3.63Expected goals1.85

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–7	6–5	2–4	1.3–1.0
2nd	11–7	5–1	2–0	1.6–0.4
3rd	7–5	5–1	1–1	0.8–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HSK	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matt Tomkins

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 26
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.63
GSAx: +1.63

Jesper Vikman

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 15
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.85
GSAx: -2.15

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:34Rhett Pitlick (0–1)high · tip · 19 ft · beat Jesper Vikman
1st 14:59Penalty
1st 19:24Penalty
2nd 3:42Braeden Bowman (1–1)medium · wrist · 19 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
2nd 5:37Rhett Pitlick (1–2)low · wrist · 48 ft · beat Jesper Vikman
2nd 10:33Penalty
2nd 15:08Joe Fleming (2–2)grade A · tip · rebound · 13 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
3rd 6:04Matt Copponi (2–3)low · 36 ft · beat Jesper Vikman
3rd 11:19Penalty
3rd 16:53Penalty
3rd 19:24Daniel D’Amato (2–4)empty net · high · wrist · 5 ft · beat Jesper Vikman