Ontario Reign at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

Ontario Reign

4:6

Final

San Diego Gulls

The sheet

ONTSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

62%38%

xG: 4.92.9
High danger: 45
Chances: 2314
Shots: 4532

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SD above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 46% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

45Shots on goal32

23Scoring chances14

4High-danger chances5

4.94Expected goals2.88

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	16–13	9–5	2–2	1.8–1.0
2nd	14–10	8–5	1–0	1.6–1.0
3rd	15–9	6–4	1–3	1.5–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	3	7:45 of the 3rd	12:15	10:04	+0.017 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ville Husso

Shots faced: 45
Saves: 41
Allowed: 4
xGA: 4.94
GSAx: +0.94

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 26
Allowed: 6
xGA: 2.88
GSAx: -3.12

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:13Penalty
1st 3:13Penalty
1st 5:30Penalty
1st 6:58Penalty
1st 14:57Penalty
1st 15:28Judd Caulfield (0–1)4v5 · high · 15 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
2nd 1:08Penalty
2nd 2:11Penalty
2nd 4:04Nico Myatovic (0–2)4v5 · low · 58 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
2nd 8:49Penalty
2nd 8:49Penalty
2nd 10:51Penalty
2nd 11:53Martin Chromiak (1–2)5v4 · medium · 46 ft · beat Ville Husso
2nd 12:44Penalty
2nd 15:14Nathan Gaucher (1–3)low · 29 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
2nd 16:54Penalty
3rd 7:45Tim Washe (1–4)low · 59 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 8:38Kenny Connors (2–4)low · 48 ft · beat Ville Husso
3rd 9:09Penalty
3rd 9:09Penalty
3rd 9:36Justin Bailey (2–5)high · 10 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 10:06Penalty
3rd 10:56Joe Hicketts (3–5)5v4 · medium · 30 ft · beat Ville Husso
3rd 15:34Tim Washe (3–6)medium · 27 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 15:52Martin Chromiak (4–6)grade A · 11 ft · beat Ville Husso