Syracuse Crunch at Charlotte Checkers

Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC

Syracuse Crunch

2:3

Final

Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

SYRCLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

39%61%

xG: 2.73.4
High danger: 49
Chances: 1111
Shots: 3028

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLT above the lineSYR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 60% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal28

11Scoring chances11

4High-danger chances9

2.72Expected goals3.40

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–9	0–0	0–0	0.5–0.4
2nd	9–12	4–8	1–6	0.8–2.0
3rd	14–7	7–3	3–3	1.5–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SYR	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Kevin Mandolese

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 28
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.72
GSAx: +0.72

Brandon Halverson

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 25
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.40
GSAx: +0.40

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:35Colton Huard (0–1)low · 57 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
1st 2:56Lucas Mercuri (1–1)low · 39 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
1st 6:45Penalty
1st 6:45Penalty
1st 6:45Penalty
1st 10:18Penalty
2nd 6:00Penalty
2nd 10:07Penalty
2nd 10:35Penalty
2nd 13:15MacKenzie Entwistle (1–2)high · 15 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
3rd 1:51Penalty
3rd 2:49Penalty
3rd 6:24Ben Steeves (1–3)grade A · rebound · 5 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
3rd 8:13Penalty
3rd 18:08Nick Abruzzese (2–3)high · 9 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese