Hartford Wolf Pack at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Hartford Wolf Pack

1:2

Final

Belleville Senators

The sheet

HFDBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

41%59%

xG: 3.44.1
High danger: 56
Chances: 1419
Shots: 3135

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BEL above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 48% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal35

14Scoring chances19

5High-danger chances6

3.41Expected goals4.07

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–6	3–2	1–0	0.9–0.4
2nd	8–18	5–9	4–4	1.3–2.1
3rd	12–11	6–8	0–2	1.2–1.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	1	19:55 of the 3rd	0:05	0:05	+0.001 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Talyn Boyko

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 33
Allowed: 2
xGA: 4.06
GSAx: +2.06

Jackson Parsons

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 30
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.41
GSAx: +2.41

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:00Penalty
1st 10:46Penalty
1st 14:05Dylan Roobroeck (1–0)low · 39 ft · beat Jackson Parsons
2nd 4:43Penalty
2nd 8:04Penalty
2nd 8:16Arthur Kaliyev (1–1)5v4 · high · 21 ft · beat Talyn Boyko
2nd 13:49Penalty
2nd 13:49Penalty
2nd 15:10Penalty
2nd 17:26Penalty
3rd 0:09Penalty
3rd 14:32Penalty
3rd 18:36Penalty
3rd 19:55Philippe Daoust (1–2)4v5 · low · 9 ft · beat Talyn Boyko