Toronto Marlies at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Toronto Marlies

2:3

Final

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

TORLVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

48%52%

xG: 2.23.1
High danger: 21
Chances: 711
Shots: 2436

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LV above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 46% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal36

7Scoring chances11

2High-danger chances1

2.25Expected goals3.11

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–9	4–2	2–1	1.4–0.9
2nd	4–17	0–6	0–0	0.2–1.5
3rd	6–10	3–3	0–0	0.7–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	4:39	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Aleksei Kolosov

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 22
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.25
GSAx: +0.25

Joseph Woll

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 21
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.09
GSAx: +0.09

Vyacheslav Peksa

Shots faced: 13
Saves: 12
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.02
GSAx: +0.02

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:03Penalty
1st 12:18Penalty
1st 18:02Borya Valis (1–0)low · 29 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
2nd 1:33Devin Kaplan (1–1)medium · 28 ft · beat Joseph Woll
2nd 5:16Lane Pederson (1–2)medium · rebound · 18 ft · beat Joseph Woll
2nd 9:28Penalty
2nd 16:09Alexis Gendron (1–3)medium · 23 ft · beat Vyacheslav Peksa
2nd 19:22Penalty
3rd 1:48Penalty
3rd 13:44Penalty
3rd 13:44Benoit-Olivier Groulx (2–3)medium · 18 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov