Manitoba Moose at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Manitoba Moose

3:2

Final

Texas Stars

The sheet

MBTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

47%53%

xG: 3.63.1
High danger: 78
Chances: 1515
Shots: 3024

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TEX above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal24

15Scoring chances15

7High-danger chances8

3.58Expected goals3.12

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–6	4–4	2–3	1.2–0.9
2nd	9–8	6–5	3–3	1.2–1.1
3rd	9–10	5–6	2–2	1.2–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TEX	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 27
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.58
GSAx: +0.58

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 22
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.12
GSAx: +1.12

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:29Penalty
1st 12:13Penalty
1st 14:41Cross Hanas (0–1)high · snap · 11 ft · beat Thomas Milic
1st 16:48Harrison Scott (0–2)high · wrist · 11 ft · beat Thomas Milic
1st 18:28Penalty
2nd 0:24David Gustafsson (1–2)5v4 · grade A · snap · rebound · 8 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
2nd 13:46Penalty
2nd 17:01Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 1:15Penalty
3rd 4:12Penalty
3rd 4:58Penalty
3rd 8:49Fabian Wagner (2–2)low · snap · 17 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
3rd 9:14Colby Barlow (3–2)high · tip · rebound · 10 ft · beat Rémi Poirier