San Diego Gulls at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

San Diego Gulls

3:4

Final / OT

Ontario Reign

The sheet

SDONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

80%20%

xG: 5.01.9
High danger: 104
Chances: 167
Shots: 3220

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 59% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal20

16Scoring chances7

10High-danger chances4

4.97Expected goals1.89

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–10	4–5	1–3	0.6–1.1
2nd	10–6	3–2	1–1	0.8–0.5
3rd	14–3	8–0	7–0	3.1–0.2
OT	3–1	1–0	1–0	0.4–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	1:33	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Erik Portillo

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 29
Allowed: 3
xGA: 4.97
GSAx: +1.97

Calle Clang

Shots faced: 12
Saves: 9
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.39
GSAx: -1.61

Ville Husso

Shots faced: 8
Saves: 7
Allowed: 1
xGA: 0.50
GSAx: -0.50

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:58Glenn Gawdin (0–1)high · 16 ft · beat Calle Clang
1st 12:37Glenn Gawdin (0–2)high · 25 ft · beat Calle Clang
2nd 6:47Aatu Jämsen (0–3)medium · 12 ft · beat Calle Clang
2nd 7:51Jan Myšák (1–3)high · 17 ft · beat Erik Portillo
2nd 8:58Penalty
2nd 8:58Penalty
2nd 11:21Penalty
2nd 13:48Noah Warren (2–3)low · 43 ft · beat Erik Portillo
3rd 6:35Penalty
3rd 7:35Penalty
3rd 11:40Penalty
3rd 18:29Tim Washe (3–3)grade A · rebound · 3 ft · beat Erik Portillo
OT 1:59Kyle Burroughs (3–4)low · 47 ft · beat Ville Husso