Coachella Valley Firebirds at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Coachella Valley Firebirds

3:4

Final / OT

Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

CVTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

33%67%

xG: 2.13.4
High danger: 44
Chances: 613
Shots: 2734

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TUC above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal34

6Scoring chances13

4High-danger chances4

2.15Expected goals3.37

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–9	2–1	1–1	0.9–0.5
2nd	10–13	4–8	3–1	1.0–1.4
3rd	7–11	0–3	0–1	0.3–1.0
OT	0–1	0–1	0–1	0.0–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	0:19	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Victor Östman

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 30
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.37
GSAx: -0.63

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 24
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.15
GSAx: -0.85

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:38Penalty
1st 10:00Oscar Fisker Mølgaard (1–0)low · 33 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
1st 10:40Logan Morrison (2–0)high · 14 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
1st 10:58Penalty
1st 10:58Penalty
1st 11:33Penalty
1st 11:51Penalty
1st 13:06Daniil But (2–1)5v4 · low · 53 ft · beat Victor Östman
1st 16:02Penalty
2nd 4:01John Hayden (3–1)high · 13 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 9:26Penalty
2nd 9:26Penalty
2nd 9:50Penalty
2nd 13:42Penalty
2nd 13:42Penalty
2nd 13:42Penalty
2nd 13:42Penalty
2nd 17:20Penalty
2nd 18:35Daniil But (3–2)5v4 · medium · 40 ft · beat Victor Östman
3rd 17:15Ryan McGregor (3–3)low · 31 ft · beat Victor Östman
OT 1:30Daniil But (3–4)grade A · 18 ft · beat Victor Östman