AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, November 8

Henderson Silver Knights at Bakersfield Condors

Dignity Health Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Henderson Silver Knights
3:5
Final
Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

HSKBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
69%31%
xG
3.92.3
High danger
54
Chances
136
Shots
4121

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BAK above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 45% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

41Shots on goal21
13Scoring chances6
5High-danger chances4
3.94Expected goals2.34

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st14–55–13–11.6–0.4
2nd12–92–50–30.7–1.6
3rd15–76–02–01.6–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HSK−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HSK116:57 of the 3rd3:033:03+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matt Tomkins
Shots faced
41
Saves
38
Allowed
3
xGA
3.94
GSAx
+0.94
Cameron Whitehead
Shots faced
21
Saves
16
Allowed
5
xGA
2.34
GSAx
-2.66

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:37Penalty
  • 1st 0:37Penalty
  • 1st 9:31Matyas Sapovaliv (1–0)grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 1st 11:48Penalty
  • 1st 12:13Penalty
  • 1st 18:23Penalty
  • 2nd 0:45Damien Carfagna (1–1)medium · 17 ft · beat Cameron Whitehead
  • 2nd 1:51Penalty
  • 2nd 3:26Penalty
  • 2nd 15:05Penalty
  • 2nd 17:10Josh Samanski (1–2)grade A · wrist · rebound · 4 ft · beat Cameron Whitehead
  • 3rd 2:34Tuomas Uronen (2–2)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 3rd 5:41Dylan Coghlan (3–2)low · slap · 59 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 3rd 6:29Quinn Hutson (3–3)low · wrist · 21 ft · beat Cameron Whitehead
  • 3rd 16:57Quinn Hutson (3–4)low · slap · 34 ft · beat Cameron Whitehead
  • 3rd 19:35Roby Järventie (3–5)empty net · low · wrist · 42 ft · beat Cameron Whitehead