Rockford IceHogs at Iowa Wild

Casey’s Center · Des Moines, IA

Rockford IceHogs

3:2

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

RFDIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

75%25%

xG: 1.82.0
High danger: 30
Chances: 53
Shots: 2630

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 58% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal30

5Scoring chances3

3High-danger chances0

1.84Expected goals1.95

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–12	2–1	1–0	0.5–0.8
2nd	10–10	0–1	0–0	0.6–0.6
3rd	7–8	3–1	2–0	0.7–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Stanislav Berezhnoy

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 28
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.95
GSAx: -0.05

Cal Petersen

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 23
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.84
GSAx: -1.16

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

2nd 4:43Landon Slaggert (1–0)low · 31 ft · beat Cal Petersen
2nd 8:27Carson Lambos (1–1)low · 54 ft · beat Stanislav Berezhnoy
2nd 9:21Penalty
2nd 11:35Brett Seney (2–1)low · 45 ft · beat Cal Petersen
3rd 1:17Caedan Bankier (2–2)medium · 11 ft · beat Stanislav Berezhnoy
3rd 2:56Penalty
3rd 3:05Dominic Toninato (3–2)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Cal Petersen