Ontario Reign at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Ontario Reign

5:1

Final

Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

ONTCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

83%17%

xG: 4.02.6
High danger: 100
Chances: 1811
Shots: 2729

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CGY above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 34% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal29

18Scoring chances11

10High-danger chances0

3.95Expected goals2.58

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–11	8–2	4–0	1.6–0.8
2nd	9–10	6–4	3–0	1.3–0.9
3rd	6–8	4–5	3–0	1.1–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CGY	3	5:40 of the 3rd	14:20	14:20	+0.020 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 28
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.59
GSAx: +1.59

Owen Say

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 22
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.95
GSAx: -1.05

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:54Penalty
1st 12:55Penalty
2nd 2:05Kenny Connors (1–0)low · wrist · 25 ft · beat Owen Say
2nd 4:11Cole Guttman (2–0)medium · tip · 19 ft · beat Owen Say
2nd 5:01Penalty
2nd 13:19Dryden Hunt (2–1)medium · tip · 5 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
2nd 16:36Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 1:12Jared Wright (3–1)4v5 · high · snap · 16 ft · beat Owen Say
3rd 5:40Taylor Ward (4–1)grade A · wrist · rebound · 10 ft · beat Owen Say
3rd 14:01Koehn Ziemmer (5–1)medium · snap · 15 ft · beat Owen Say
3rd 16:07Penalty