AHLDashboard
‹ Tuesday, November 11

Bakersfield Condors at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Bakersfield Condors
3:6
Final
Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

BAKCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
60%40%
xG
4.63.2
High danger
77
Chances
2116
Shots
3824

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012345P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CV above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 59% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

38Shots on goal24
21Scoring chances16
7High-danger chances7
4.56Expected goals3.19

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–113–61–40.8–1.4
2nd13–107–73–21.5–1.3
3rd16–311–33–12.3–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−60:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK60:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.001 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikke Kokko
Shots faced
38
Saves
35
Allowed
3
xGA
4.56
GSAx
+1.56
Matt Tomkins
Shots faced
24
Saves
18
Allowed
6
xGA
3.19
GSAx
-2.81

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:12Penalty
  • 1st 10:07Penalty
  • 1st 10:42Logan Morrison (0–1)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 1st 13:31Penalty
  • 1st 17:28Ty Nelson (0–2)low · 33 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 1st 19:31Penalty
  • 2nd 1:32J.R. Avon (0–3)4v5 · high · 9 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 2nd 5:21Ty Nelson (0–4)medium · 7 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 2nd 5:52Mitchell Stephens (0–5)medium · 15 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 2nd 7:59Penalty
  • 2nd 9:14Penalty
  • 2nd 11:01Penalty
  • 2nd 12:39Penalty
  • 2nd 12:39J.R. Avon (0–6)5v4 · high · 24 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 2nd 13:41Penalty
  • 2nd 18:02Penalty
  • 3rd 0:49Rhett Pitlick (1–6)high · 8 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 3rd 7:37Penalty
  • 3rd 12:11Penalty
  • 3rd 12:11Penalty
  • 3rd 12:24Viljami Marjala (2–6)5v4 · high · 14 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 3rd 17:18Penalty
  • 3rd 17:18Penalty
  • 3rd 17:18Penalty
  • 3rd 19:02Seth Griffith (3–6)5v4 · medium · 24 ft · beat Nikke Kokko