San Jose Barracuda at Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Centre · Abbotsford, BC

San Jose Barracuda

7:0

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

SJABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

69%31%

xG: 3.92.4
High danger: 74
Chances: 159
Shots: 3627

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 43% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal27

15Scoring chances9

7High-danger chances4

3.87Expected goals2.42

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–12	4–4	2–2	1.0–1.0
2nd	10–5	5–1	3–1	1.2–0.4
3rd	15–10	6–4	2–1	1.6–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ABB	5	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.005 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jakub Skarek

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 27
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.42
GSAx: +2.42

Ty Young

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 16
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.24
GSAx: -2.76

Jonathan Lemieux

Shots faced: 15
Saves: 13
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.63
GSAx: -0.37

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:55Penalty
1st 8:48Patrick Giles (1–0)high · 10 ft · beat Ty Young
1st 16:09Zack Ostapchuk (2–0)medium · 13 ft · beat Ty Young
2nd 3:24Lucas Carlsson (3–0)medium · 19 ft · beat Ty Young
2nd 5:05Penalty
2nd 13:56Patrick Giles (4–0)high · 18 ft · beat Ty Young
2nd 16:20Igor Chernyshov (5–0)medium · 16 ft · beat Ty Young
3rd 8:30Igor Chernyshov (6–0)low · 28 ft · beat Jonathan Lemieux
3rd 11:38Penalty
3rd 14:58Penalty
3rd 16:34Igor Chernyshov (7–0)5v4 · medium · 30 ft · beat Jonathan Lemieux