Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Bridgeport Islanders

Total Mortgage Arena · Bridgeport, CT

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

5:4

Final / SO

Bridgeport Islanders

The sheet

WBSBRISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

32%68%

xG: 1.92.8
High danger: 23
Chances: 59
Shots: 1928

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BRI above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% BRI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

19Shots on goal28

5Scoring chances9

2High-danger chances3

1.93Expected goals2.77

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–7	2–1	1–1	0.9–0.6
2nd	5–9	2–3	0–0	0.4–0.7
3rd	4–10	1–4	1–2	0.4–1.2
OT	3–2	0–1	0–0	0.3–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	2:26	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Maxim Pavlenko

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 24
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.77
GSAx: -1.23

Marcus Högberg

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 15
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.93
GSAx: -2.07

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:35Penalty
1st 0:35Penalty
1st 1:16Cole McWard (0–1)low · 36 ft · beat Maxim Pavlenko
1st 2:43Penalty
1st 7:13Sam Poulin (1–1)grade A · rebound · 18 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
1st 13:46Adam Beckman (1–2)low · 26 ft · beat Maxim Pavlenko
1st 14:17Penalty
1st 18:58Aaron Huglen (2–2)low · 14 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
2nd 1:34Penalty
2nd 4:29Penalty
2nd 8:32Penalty
3rd 0:39Alex Alexeyev (3–2)low · 59 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
3rd 5:36Isaiah George (3–3)low · 121 ft · beat Maxim Pavlenko
3rd 8:53Penalty
3rd 9:10Penalty
3rd 16:49Sam Poulin (4–3)low · 32 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
3rd 19:22Joey Larson (4–4)grade A · 28 ft · beat Maxim Pavlenko