Laval Rocket at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Laval Rocket

1:3

Final

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

LAVSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

42%58%

xG: 2.32.9
High danger: 44
Chances: 612
Shots: 2526

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the lineLAV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 47% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal26

6Scoring chances12

4High-danger chances4

2.33Expected goals2.92

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–9	0–5	0–2	0.4–1.3
2nd	6–7	2–5	1–2	0.8–1.0
3rd	12–10	4–2	3–0	1.2–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LAV	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jacob Fowler

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 23
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.92
GSAx: -0.08

Vadim Zherenko

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 24
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.33
GSAx: +1.33

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 11:27Penalty
1st 14:20Nikita Alexandrov (0–1)medium · 14 ft · beat Jacob Fowler
2nd 13:26Penalty
2nd 14:37Penalty
2nd 17:44Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 10:48Hugh McGing (0–2)low · 25 ft · beat Jacob Fowler
3rd 11:56Luke Tuch (1–2)low · 23 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
3rd 12:13Penalty
3rd 15:51Penalty
3rd 15:51Penalty
3rd 15:51Penalty
3rd 15:51Penalty
3rd 19:08Matt Luff (1–3)empty net · low · 47 ft · beat Jacob Fowler