Hartford Wolf Pack at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Hartford Wolf Pack

2:3

Final / OT

Providence Bruins

The sheet

HFDPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

34%66%

xG: 2.73.8
High danger: 33
Chances: 1011
Shots: 2845

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

PRO above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 66% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal45

10Scoring chances11

3High-danger chances3

2.67Expected goals3.85

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–15	1–3	0–1	0.4–1.2
2nd	9–14	4–5	2–1	1.0–1.3
3rd	12–10	5–3	1–1	1.1–0.9
OT	2–6	0–0	0–0	0.1–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	0:44	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dylan Garand

Shots faced: 45
Saves: 42
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.85
GSAx: +0.85

Michael DiPietro

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 26
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.67
GSAx: +0.67

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 14:28Penalty
2nd 2:47Penalty
2nd 14:05Joey Abate (0–1)medium · 10 ft · beat Dylan Garand
2nd 16:17Penalty
2nd 18:38Justin Dowling (1–1)medium · 22 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
3rd 5:54Penalty
3rd 11:12Penalty
3rd 12:43Patrick Brown (1–2)5v4 · high · 11 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 17:27Penalty
3rd 17:40Dylan Roobroeck (2–2)5v4 · high · 12 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
OT 3:28Fabian Lysell (2–3)low · 9 ft · beat Dylan Garand