AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, November 12

Belleville Senators at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Belleville Senators
6:4
Final
Rochester Americans

The sheet

BELROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
19%81%
xG
1.73.5
High danger
35
Chances
513
Shots
2442

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ROC above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal42
5Scoring chances13
3High-danger chances5
1.70Expected goals3.55

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–112–32–00.8–0.8
2nd8–201–61–20.4–1.7
3rd6–112–40–30.4–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ROC−3−2−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ROC30:00 of the 3rd20:0014:30+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Hunter Shepard
Shots faced
42
Saves
38
Allowed
4
xGA
3.55
GSAx
-0.45
Devon Levi
Shots faced
23
Saves
18
Allowed
5
xGA
1.70
GSAx
-3.30
Topias Leinonen
Shots faced
1
Saves
0
Allowed
1
xGA
0.00
GSAx
-1.00

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:28Penalty
  • 1st 6:09Jamieson Rees (1–0)high · 11 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 1st 12:48Penalty
  • 1st 13:45Arthur Kaliyev (2–0)5v4 · low · 45 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 2nd 0:19Penalty
  • 2nd 4:22Penalty
  • 2nd 11:54Penalty
  • 2nd 17:09Penalty
  • 2nd 17:36Philippe Daoust (3–0)5v4 · high · 7 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 3rd 0:59Wyatt Bongiovanni (4–0)medium · 16 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 3rd 5:01Penalty
  • 3rd 5:01Penalty
  • 3rd 6:14Carson Meyer (4–1)medium · 33 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 3rd 7:03Anton Wahlberg (4–2)high · 8 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 3rd 8:34Riley Fiddler-Schultz (4–3)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 3rd 9:39Arthur Kaliyev (5–3)low · 38 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 3rd 16:32Jake Leschyshyn (5–4)high · 11 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 3rd 19:45Jan Jeník (6–4)empty net · low · 81 ft · beat Topias Leinonen