Ontario Reign at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Ontario Reign

2:3

Final

Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

ONTCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

52%48%

xG: 2.72.9
High danger: 54
Chances: 1211
Shots: 2332

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CGY above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 34% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal32

12Scoring chances11

5High-danger chances4

2.66Expected goals2.89

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–10	3–2	1–1	0.6–0.7
2nd	4–12	2–4	0–3	0.4–1.2
3rd	11–10	7–5	4–0	1.6–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 27
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.76
GSAx: -0.24

Ivan Prosvetov

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 21
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.66
GSAx: +0.66

Erik Portillo

Shots faced: 2
Saves: 2
Allowed: 0
xGA: 0.12
GSAx: +0.12

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:23Penalty
1st 1:23Penalty
1st 3:54Penalty
1st 17:19Martin Frk (0–1)high · snap · 7 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
2nd 7:57Penalty
2nd 7:57Penalty
2nd 7:57Penalty
2nd 8:13Clark Bishop (0–2)4v5 · high · backhand · 11 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
2nd 16:50Akil Thomas (1–2)low · wrist · 29 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
2nd 19:31Penalty
3rd 1:47Penalty
3rd 4:22Penalty
3rd 4:50Penalty
3rd 7:10Jakub Dvořák (2–2)grade A · wrist · 19 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
3rd 7:36Penalty
3rd 9:03Aydar Suniev (2–3)5v4 · medium · wrist · 30 ft · beat Pheonix Copley