San Jose Barracuda at Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Centre · Abbotsford, BC

San Jose Barracuda

3:4

Final / SO

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

SJABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

52%48%

xG: 3.33.0
High danger: 44
Chances: 1213
Shots: 3631

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 43% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal31

12Scoring chances13

4High-danger chances4

3.32Expected goals2.97

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–4	6–2	2–0	1.4–0.4
2nd	10–11	5–4	1–2	1.0–1.0
3rd	12–16	1–7	1–2	0.9–1.5
OT	1–0	0–0	0–0	0.0–0.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ABB	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	1:48	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Aku Koskenvuo

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 33
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.32
GSAx: +0.32

Gabriel Carriere

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 28
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.97
GSAx: -0.03

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:31Lucas Carlsson (1–0)low · 45 ft · beat Aku Koskenvuo
1st 16:13Penalty
1st 19:51Penalty
2nd 1:09Quentin Musty (2–0)5v4 · medium · 35 ft · beat Aku Koskenvuo
2nd 4:12Joe Arntsen (2–1)low · 35 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
2nd 8:26Penalty
2nd 9:26Ty Mueller (2–2)5v4 · high · 10 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
2nd 14:56Colin White (3–2)medium · 22 ft · beat Aku Koskenvuo
3rd 3:46Penalty
3rd 3:46Penalty
3rd 8:19Penalty
3rd 15:07Penalty
3rd 18:33Penalty
3rd 18:44Joseph LaBate (3–3)5v4 · grade A · 17 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere