Rochester Americans at Hartford Wolf Pack

PeoplesBank Arena · Hartford, CT

Rochester Americans

4:3

Final / OT

Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

ROCHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

76%24%

xG: 3.01.9
High danger: 61
Chances: 98
Shots: 2822

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HFD above the lineROC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal22

9Scoring chances8

6High-danger chances1

3.03Expected goals1.86

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–12	3–4	2–1	0.7–1.1
2nd	11–6	1–3	1–0	0.8–0.5
3rd	10–3	4–0	2–0	1.0–0.1
OT	1–1	1–1	1–0	0.5–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ROC	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	0:09	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Talyn Boyko

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 24
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.03
GSAx: -0.97

Topias Leinonen

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 19
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.87
GSAx: -1.13

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:57Blake Hillman (0–1)low · 64 ft · beat Topias Leinonen
1st 2:59Penalty
1st 7:18Anton Blidh (0–2)medium · 11 ft · beat Topias Leinonen
1st 9:48Olivier Nadeau (1–2)low · 27 ft · beat Talyn Boyko
1st 16:21Jaroslav Chmelar (1–3)high · 7 ft · beat Topias Leinonen
1st 16:27Penalty
1st 19:37Penalty
2nd 2:12Penalty
2nd 2:27Penalty
2nd 8:42Penalty
2nd 11:43Trevor Kuntar (2–3)low · 45 ft · beat Talyn Boyko
2nd 12:03Penalty
2nd 12:36Penalty
3rd 15:36Penalty
3rd 17:05Trevor Kuntar (3–3)5v4 · high · 11 ft · beat Talyn Boyko
OT 1:05Riley Fiddler-Schultz (4–3)grade A · 25 ft · beat Talyn Boyko