Toronto Marlies at Grand Rapids Griffins

Van Andel Arena · Grand Rapids, MI

Toronto Marlies

2:5

Final

Grand Rapids Griffins

The sheet

TORGRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

19%81%

xG: 1.52.2
High danger: 14
Chances: 48
Shots: 2327

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

GR above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 58% GR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal27

4Scoring chances8

1High-danger chances4

1.53Expected goals2.24

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–12	2–4	1–1	0.6–1.0
2nd	7–8	1–3	0–2	0.4–0.7
3rd	9–7	1–1	0–1	0.5–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	3	1:48 of the 3rd	18:12	9:40	+0.023 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Vyacheslav Peksa

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 22
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.24
GSAx: -2.76

Carter Gylander

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 21
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.53
GSAx: -0.47

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:57Eduards Tralmaks (0–1)medium · wrist · 32 ft · beat Vyacheslav Peksa
1st 18:06Ian Mitchell (0–2)low · tip · 57 ft · beat Vyacheslav Peksa
2nd 19:46Penalty
3rd 1:48Michael Brandsegg-Nygård (0–3)low · slap · 34 ft · beat Vyacheslav Peksa
3rd 3:37Ryan Tverberg (1–3)low · wrist · 47 ft · beat Carter Gylander
3rd 13:14Amadeus Lombardi (1–4)high · backhand · 5 ft · beat Vyacheslav Peksa
3rd 16:04Marc Johnstone (2–4)medium · 8 ft · beat Carter Gylander
3rd 17:00John Leonard (2–5)empty net · low · slap · 172 ft · beat Vyacheslav Peksa