Manitoba Moose at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Manitoba Moose

3:1

Final

Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

MBMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

50%50%

xG: 2.22.6
High danger: 43
Chances: 812
Shots: 2926

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MIL above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal26

8Scoring chances12

4High-danger chances3

2.18Expected goals2.64

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	17–4	6–2	4–1	1.5–0.3
2nd	6–12	0–5	0–0	0.3–1.0
3rd	6–10	2–5	0–2	0.4–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MIL	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Magnus Chrona

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.18
GSAx: -0.82

Domenic DiVincentiis

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 25
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.64
GSAx: +1.64

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:48Penalty
1st 5:14Kevin Conley (1–0)high · 9 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
1st 10:18Penalty
1st 10:27Phillip Di Giuseppe (2–0)5v4 · high · 13 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
2nd 1:50Penalty
3rd 1:38Penalty
3rd 9:07Cole O’Hara (2–1)grade A · rebound · 26 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
3rd 11:54Penalty
3rd 16:57Penalty
3rd 16:57Penalty
3rd 19:54Walker Duehr (3–1)empty net · low · 108 ft · beat Magnus Chrona