Charlotte Checkers at Iowa Wild

Casey’s Center · Des Moines, IA

Charlotte Checkers

4:3

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

CLTIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

71%29%

xG: 3.42.4
High danger: 64
Chances: 149
Shots: 3225

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 37% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal25

14Scoring chances9

6High-danger chances4

3.41Expected goals2.38

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–6	2–0	1–0	0.6–0.4
2nd	13–12	7–6	1–2	1.3–1.3
3rd	12–7	5–3	4–2	1.5–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Samuel Hlavaj

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 28
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.41
GSAx: -0.59

Cooper Black

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 22
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.38
GSAx: -0.62

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:00Jack Peart (0–1)low · 23 ft · beat Cooper Black
1st 5:12Penalty
1st 9:16Penalty
1st 10:44Brett Chorske (1–1)4v5 · high · 15 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
1st 12:24Penalty
1st 16:35Marek Alscher (2–1)low · 50 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
1st 16:42Penalty
2nd 0:13Penalty
2nd 4:49Penalty
2nd 5:50Gerry Mayhew (2–2)5v4 · medium · 8 ft · beat Cooper Black
2nd 7:40Penalty
2nd 8:28Penalty
2nd 8:58Penalty
2nd 8:58Penalty
2nd 13:21Wilmer Skoog (3–2)medium · 10 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
2nd 14:38Penalty
2nd 17:37Penalty
3rd 3:06Penalty
3rd 8:11Penalty
3rd 10:06Wilmer Skoog (4–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
3rd 12:37Penalty
3rd 16:37Penalty
3rd 17:23Tyler Pitlick (4–3)5v4 · medium · 15 ft · beat Cooper Black