AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, November 14

Tucson Roadrunners at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Tucson Roadrunners
2:6
Final
Colorado Eagles

The sheet

TUCCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
21%79%
xG
2.64.0
High danger
28
Chances
1114
Shots
2936

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
COL above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 63% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal36
11Scoring chances14
2High-danger chances8
2.59Expected goals3.99

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st17–127–31–31.6–1.3
2nd9–164–91–40.8–2.1
3rd3–80–20–10.2–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TUC−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TUC212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
36
Saves
30
Allowed
6
xGA
3.99
GSAx
-2.01
Trent Miner
Shots faced
29
Saves
27
Allowed
2
xGA
2.59
GSAx
+0.59

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:14Cameron Hebig (1–0)medium · 12 ft · beat Trent Miner
  • 1st 4:08Alex Barré-Boulet (1–1)high · rebound · 13 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 5:38Penalty
  • 1st 8:50Penalty
  • 1st 13:42Penalty
  • 2nd 1:29Penalty
  • 2nd 1:36Jayson Megna (1–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 6:57Cameron Hebig (2–2)medium · 17 ft · beat Trent Miner
  • 2nd 12:35Tye Felhaber (2–3)medium · 16 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 7:15Penalty
  • 3rd 10:18Tristen Nielsen (2–4)high · 8 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 15:04Penalty
  • 3rd 16:40Tye Felhaber (2–5)5v4 · low · 29 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 17:33Mark Senden (2–6)empty net · low · 94 ft · beat Matthew Villalta