Bakersfield Condors at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

Bakersfield Condors

3:4

Final / OT

San Diego Gulls

The sheet

BAKSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

39%61%

xG: 3.14.3
High danger: 78
Chances: 1018
Shots: 3138

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SD above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal38

10Scoring chances18

7High-danger chances8

3.13Expected goals4.33

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–10	3–5	3–4	1.3–1.3
2nd	12–10	3–5	1–2	0.9–1.1
3rd	6–17	4–8	3–2	0.9–1.8
OT	0–1	0–0	0–0	0.0–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:03	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Connor Ingram

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 34
Allowed: 4
xGA: 4.33
GSAx: +0.33

Ville Husso

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 28
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.13
GSAx: +0.13

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 17:00Penalty
2nd 3:02Penalty
2nd 3:02Penalty
2nd 3:56Penalty
2nd 4:54Matt Copponi (1–0)4v5 · low · 43 ft · beat Ville Husso
2nd 10:50Penalty
2nd 11:20Rem Pitlick (2–0)5v4 · high · 10 ft · beat Ville Husso
2nd 15:01Penalty
2nd 17:29Tim Washe (2–1)medium · 20 ft · beat Connor Ingram
2nd 18:38Penalty
2nd 18:38Penalty
3rd 1:24Penalty
3rd 6:26Justin Bailey (2–2)low · 51 ft · beat Connor Ingram
3rd 8:32Rem Pitlick (3–2)medium · 9 ft · beat Ville Husso
3rd 13:03Penalty
3rd 16:12Penalty
3rd 19:51Penalty
3rd 19:59Sam Colangelo (3–3)5v4 · high · rebound · 54 ft · beat Connor Ingram
OT 1:11Justin Bailey (3–4)5v4 · low · 15 ft · beat Connor Ingram