Charlotte Checkers at Iowa Wild

Casey’s Center · Des Moines, IA

Charlotte Checkers

2:0

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

CLTIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

49%51%

xG: 2.21.9
High danger: 36
Chances: 87
Shots: 2117

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 37% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal17

8Scoring chances7

3High-danger chances6

2.20Expected goals1.93

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	2–6	1–3	0–3	0.2–0.7
2nd	15–6	6–2	3–1	1.8–0.6
3rd	4–5	1–2	0–2	0.3–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cal Petersen

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 19
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.20
GSAx: +0.20

Kirill Gerasimyuk

Shots faced: 17
Saves: 17
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.93
GSAx: +1.93

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:21Penalty
1st 13:32Penalty
2nd 5:31Penalty
2nd 8:19Jack Devine (1–0)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Cal Petersen
2nd 11:26Penalty
3rd 1:17Penalty
3rd 6:06Penalty
3rd 11:28Wilmer Skoog (2–0)low · 57 ft · beat Cal Petersen
3rd 13:17Penalty