Belleville Senators at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Belleville Senators

4:1

Final

Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

BELSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

18%82%

xG: 1.73.8
High danger: 49
Chances: 714
Shots: 1435

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SYR above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 64% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

14Shots on goal35

7Scoring chances14

4High-danger chances9

1.72Expected goals3.76

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	4–6	2–1	1–0	0.5–0.3
2nd	2–13	1–5	0–4	0.2–1.6
3rd	8–16	4–8	3–5	1.0–1.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SYR	3	0:31 of the 3rd	19:29	11:30	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jackson Parsons

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 34
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.76
GSAx: +2.76

Ryan Fanti

Shots faced: 14
Saves: 10
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.72
GSAx: -2.28

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:46Penalty
1st 1:46Penalty
1st 1:46Penalty
1st 1:46Penalty
1st 1:46Mark Duarte (1–0)medium · 16 ft · beat Ryan Fanti
1st 8:54Penalty
1st 14:09Penalty
1st 14:21Xavier Bourgault (2–0)5v4 · high · 10 ft · beat Ryan Fanti
1st 15:03Penalty
1st 19:10Penalty
2nd 7:29Penalty
2nd 14:46Penalty
2nd 14:46Penalty
2nd 19:46Penalty
3rd 0:31Arthur Kaliyev (3–0)5v4 · high · 43 ft · beat Ryan Fanti
3rd 2:15Penalty
3rd 2:59Penalty
3rd 4:10Dylan Duke (3–1)5v4 · high · 8 ft · beat Jackson Parsons
3rd 9:47Penalty
3rd 18:45Mark Duarte (4–1)empty net · low · 128 ft · beat Ryan Fanti