Hershey Bears at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Hershey Bears

4:3

Final

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

HERLVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

14%86%

xG: 2.04.6
High danger: 310
Chances: 622
Shots: 2041

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LV above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal41

6Scoring chances22

3High-danger chances10

1.99Expected goals4.64

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–13	2–5	1–2	0.6–1.1
2nd	6–14	1–8	1–3	0.5–1.6
3rd	8–14	3–9	1–5	0.9–2.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LV	1	19:47 of the 3rd	0:13	0:13	+0.004 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Garin Bjorklund

Shots faced: 41
Saves: 38
Allowed: 3
xGA: 4.64
GSAx: +1.64

Carson Bjarnason

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 16
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.99
GSAx: -2.01

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:12Penalty
2nd 3:41Penalty
2nd 12:57Matt Strome (1–0)low · 35 ft · beat Carson Bjarnason
2nd 15:40Penalty
2nd 17:38Bogdan Trineyev (2–0)5v4 · high · 12 ft · beat Carson Bjarnason
3rd 4:44Denver Barkey (2–1)grade A · 21 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
3rd 9:52Ilya Protas (3–1)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Carson Bjarnason
3rd 10:53Penalty
3rd 11:47Cooper Marody (3–2)5v4 · high · 11 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
3rd 13:32Penalty
3rd 14:58Lane Pederson (3–3)5v4 · high · 16 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
3rd 16:15Penalty
3rd 16:43Penalty
3rd 19:47Matt Strome (4–3)medium · 11 ft · beat Carson Bjarnason