Cleveland Monsters at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Cleveland Monsters

2:3

Final

Chicago Wolves

The sheet

CLECHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

54%46%

xG: 3.83.1
High danger: 75
Chances: 1310
Shots: 3731

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CHI above the lineCLE belowDots are goals. Pre-game 44% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal31

13Scoring chances10

7High-danger chances5

3.83Expected goals3.11

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–12	1–4	1–2	0.8–1.3
2nd	17–10	8–3	6–2	2.2–1.0
3rd	9–9	4–3	0–1	0.8–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLE	2	14:49 of the 3rd	5:11	5:11	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cayden Primeau

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 35
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.83
GSAx: +1.83

Ivan Fedotov

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 28
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.11
GSAx: +0.11

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:27Penalty
1st 7:03Penalty
1st 11:33Penalty
1st 11:33Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
2nd 5:00Penalty
2nd 7:36Penalty
2nd 11:23Penalty
2nd 11:23Penalty
2nd 11:23Penalty
2nd 11:23Penalty
2nd 11:23Penalty
2nd 14:48Skyler Brind’Amour (0–1)high · 16 ft · beat Ivan Fedotov
2nd 18:32Brendan Gaunce (1–1)medium · 7 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
2nd 19:51Penalty
3rd 2:33Felix Unger Sörum (1–2)medium · 10 ft · beat Ivan Fedotov
3rd 7:39Penalty
3rd 14:49Dominik Badinka (1–3)medium · 12 ft · beat Ivan Fedotov
3rd 18:21Penalty
3rd 18:38Guillaume Richard (2–3)4v5 · medium · 8 ft · beat Cayden Primeau