Manitoba Moose at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Manitoba Moose

5:2

Final

Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

MBRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

78%22%

xG: 2.62.4
High danger: 60
Chances: 95
Shots: 2935

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

RFD above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 45% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal35

9Scoring chances5

6High-danger chances0

2.64Expected goals2.45

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–12	1–3	1–0	0.6–1.0
2nd	9–12	5–1	3–0	1.1–0.8
3rd	11–11	3–1	2–0	1.0–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	3	1:49 of the 3rd	18:11	18:11	+0.023 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 33
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.45
GSAx: +0.45

Stanislav Berezhnoy

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 24
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.64
GSAx: -2.36

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 9:37Connor Mylymok (0–1)low · 8 ft · beat Thomas Milic
1st 11:45Penalty
1st 19:21Penalty
1st 19:21Penalty
2nd 1:42Danny Zhilkin (1–1)high · tip · 13 ft · beat Stanislav Berezhnoy
2nd 5:12Walker Duehr (2–1)low · 30 ft · beat Stanislav Berezhnoy
2nd 8:06Brett Seney (2–2)medium · 19 ft · beat Thomas Milic
2nd 9:02Penalty
2nd 9:02Penalty
2nd 12:28Penalty
2nd 14:17Danny Zhilkin (3–2)4v5 · high · 8 ft · beat Stanislav Berezhnoy
2nd 15:46Samuel Fagemo (4–2)high · 11 ft · beat Stanislav Berezhnoy
3rd 1:49Mason Shaw (5–2)low · 36 ft · beat Stanislav Berezhnoy
3rd 12:57Penalty
3rd 12:57Penalty
3rd 14:18Penalty
3rd 14:18Penalty
3rd 14:49Penalty
3rd 14:49Penalty
3rd 14:49Penalty
3rd 14:49Penalty
3rd 16:25Penalty
3rd 16:25Penalty
3rd 16:25Penalty
3rd 16:25Penalty
3rd 16:25Penalty
3rd 16:25Penalty
3rd 18:22Penalty