Ontario Reign at San Jose Barracuda

Tech CU Arena · San Jose, CA

Ontario Reign

3:4

Final

San Jose Barracuda

The sheet

ONTSJSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

47%53%

xG: 2.32.9
High danger: 44
Chances: 710
Shots: 2729

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SJ above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% SJ.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal29

7Scoring chances10

4High-danger chances4

2.26Expected goals2.92

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–15	3–3	2–1	0.8–1.5
2nd	10–7	2–4	1–1	0.8–0.8
3rd	9–7	2–3	1–2	0.7–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 25
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.92
GSAx: -1.08

Jakub Skarek

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 24
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.26
GSAx: -0.74

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:38Penalty
1st 6:08Lucas Carlsson (0–1)low · 26 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
1st 12:19Penalty
1st 14:48Penalty
1st 18:08Filip Bystedt (0–2)low · 17 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
2nd 2:15Penalty
2nd 11:26Penalty
2nd 13:14Martin Chromiak (1–2)5v4 · medium · 25 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
2nd 14:31Penalty
2nd 14:31Penalty
2nd 16:38Penalty
3rd 2:06Penalty
3rd 2:58Andre Lee (2–2)5v4 · grade A · 9 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
3rd 5:23Penalty
3rd 7:03Andre Lee (3–2)5v4 · medium · 10 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
3rd 12:18Penalty
3rd 12:18Penalty
3rd 13:34Luca Cagnoni (3–3)medium · 9 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 16:01Colin White (3–4)high · 9 ft · beat Pheonix Copley