AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, November 15

Coachella Valley Firebirds at Bakersfield Condors

Dignity Health Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Coachella Valley Firebirds
3:6
Final
Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

CVBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
57%43%
xG
2.92.6
High danger
45
Chances
149
Shots
3127

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BAK above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 47% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal27
14Scoring chances9
4High-danger chances5
2.88Expected goals2.58

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–112–41–20.8–1.0
2nd15–79–32–31.6–1.0
3rd5–93–21–00.5–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CV−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CV30:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matt Tomkins
Shots faced
31
Saves
28
Allowed
3
xGA
2.88
GSAx
-0.12
Nikke Kokko
Shots faced
27
Saves
21
Allowed
6
xGA
2.57
GSAx
-3.43

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:20Josh Samanski (0–1)high · wrist · rebound · 14 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 1st 5:35Penalty
  • 1st 5:35Penalty
  • 1st 9:27Penalty
  • 1st 10:48Quinn Hutson (0–2)5v4 · medium · slap · 35 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 1st 14:35Penalty
  • 2nd 2:04Jagger Firkus (1–2)medium · wrist · 24 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 2nd 2:54Penalty
  • 2nd 2:54Penalty
  • 2nd 2:54Penalty
  • 2nd 4:00Penalty
  • 2nd 6:52Roby Järventie (1–3)low · wrist · 11 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 2nd 9:29Penalty
  • 2nd 9:29Penalty
  • 2nd 9:29Penalty
  • 2nd 9:29Penalty
  • 2nd 9:29Penalty
  • 2nd 12:13Penalty
  • 2nd 13:21Penalty
  • 2nd 14:09James Hamblin (1–4)high · wrist · 24 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 2nd 17:54Jagger Firkus (2–4)grade A · wrist · rebound · 8 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 2nd 19:45Roby Järventie (2–5)high · tip · 10 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 3rd 4:01Penalty
  • 3rd 7:27Penalty
  • 3rd 14:24Quinn Hutson (2–6)low · wrist · 38 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 3rd 16:42Penalty
  • 3rd 16:42Penalty
  • 3rd 16:42Penalty
  • 3rd 17:00Penalty
  • 3rd 18:06Jagger Firkus (3–6)5v4 · medium · wrist · 34 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 3rd 18:48Penalty
  • 3rd 19:01Penalty
  • 3rd 19:01Penalty