Texas Stars at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Texas Stars

3:2

Final / SO

Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

TEXRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

40%60%

xG: 2.62.8
High danger: 24
Chances: 813
Shots: 3423

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

RFD above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 43% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal23

8Scoring chances13

2High-danger chances4

2.60Expected goals2.81

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–9	3–4	0–3	0.8–1.3
2nd	9–9	3–7	1–1	0.8–1.0
3rd	11–3	2–1	1–0	0.8–0.2
OT	2–2	0–1	0–0	0.2–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TEX	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	0:27	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 32
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.60
GSAx: +0.60

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 21
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.81
GSAx: +0.81

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:07Joey Anderson (0–1)grade A · 8 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
1st 5:05Penalty
1st 9:05Penalty
1st 13:31Penalty
1st 15:15Penalty
2nd 0:14Aidan Thompson (0–2)medium · 23 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
2nd 2:04Matthew Seminoff (1–2)high · rebound · 38 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 4:46Penalty
2nd 4:46Penalty
2nd 5:25Penalty
2nd 13:57Penalty
3rd 3:43Penalty
3rd 17:23Samu Tuomaala (2–2)low · 43 ft · beat Drew Commesso