Calgary Wranglers at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

Calgary Wranglers

2:5

Final

Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

CGYHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

8%92%

xG: 1.44.1
High danger: 110
Chances: 317
Shots: 1433

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HSK above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 71% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

14Shots on goal33

3Scoring chances17

1High-danger chances10

1.40Expected goals4.13

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–16	1–9	0–4	0.4–2.0
2nd	4–12	0–5	0–3	0.2–1.2
3rd	5–5	2–3	1–3	0.8–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CGY	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Owen Say

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 28
Allowed: 4
xGA: 4.13
GSAx: +0.13

Carter Hart

Shots faced: 14
Saves: 12
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.40
GSAx: -0.60

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:14Penalty
1st 8:08Jeremy Davies (0–1)grade A · wrist · rebound · 16 ft · beat Owen Say
1st 13:39Penalty
1st 18:28Penalty
1st 19:58Lukas Cormier (0–2)5v4 · low · slap · 58 ft · beat Owen Say
2nd 1:43Penalty
2nd 6:28Penalty
2nd 10:29Penalty
2nd 16:52Lucas Johansen (0–3)low · 54 ft · beat Owen Say
2nd 17:01Trevor Connelly (0–4)high · 23 ft · beat Owen Say
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 13:24Penalty
3rd 14:58Matvei Gridin (1–4)4v5 · medium · wrist · 18 ft · beat Carter Hart
3rd 15:47Daniil Miromanov (2–4)low · wrist · 35 ft · beat Carter Hart
3rd 18:58Penalty
3rd 19:59Jaycob Megna (2–5)empty net · low · wrist · 172 ft